Fact-Check: Russia’s GDP Growth Claims by PM Mishustin

Claim: Russia’s GDP grew by 5% in the first five months of 2024, which is significantly higher than forecast, according to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. He also stated that the manufacturing sector grew by almost 9% from January to May, with significant contributions from machine building, and investments increased by almost 15% in the first quarter.

Fact-Check:

1. GDP Growth:
   • The claim that Russia’s GDP grew by 5% in the first five months of 2024 is supported by official statements from the Russian government and reported by state-controlled news agency TASS. However, external verification from international economic monitoring bodies is required for a comprehensive analysis. Given the current geopolitical climate and economic sanctions.
2. Manufacturing Sector Growth:
   • Mishustin’s claim that the manufacturing sector grew by almost 9% is significant and aligns with a focus on machine building. This sector’s growth can be attributed to the government’s push to boost domestic production in response to sanctions and reduce reliance on imports. External reports on the specific growth rates of different sectors within Russia’s economy would provide a clearer picture.
3. Investment Increase:
   • The reported 15% increase in investments in the first quarter is notable. This figure suggests that despite economic sanctions and geopolitical tensions, there has been substantial investment in machinery, equipment, and intellectual property. External economic analyses and investment reports would be beneficial to verify these claims and understand the investment climate in Russia.
4. Consumer Activity and Inflation:
   • The claim of high consumer activity and the resulting impact on inflation is consistent with general economic principles. Increased consumer spending typically leads to higher inflation if not matched by an increase in supply. Mishustin’s reported 4.5% inflation rate from the beginning of the year matches concerns about rising living costs.

Conclusion:

According to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Russia’s GDP growth of 5% in the first five months of 2024 exceeds earlier forecasts. Mishustin also highlighted positive developments in the manufacturing sector, citing nearly 9% growth driven by machine building, and noted a substantial increase in investments, particularly in machinery and intellectual property. He underscored the impact of heightened consumer activity on inflation, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and adjustments in collaboration with the Bank of Russia. These statements reflect the official stance of the Russian government, pending further independent verification from international economic sources.

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